Poverty in Argentina: what changed, and what could happen next?

An income measure, not the whole picture

INDEC compares household income with a basic basket. A household below that threshold is classified as poor by income. The EPH results cover 31 urban agglomerations; they are not a census of everyone in Argentina.

Distinguish people from households.
Compare the same coverage and measurement method.
Separate observed figures from fictional examples.

The starting point changes the story

Poverty was already high before the presidential transition in December 2023. The first half of 2024 combines accumulated problems with a recession, devaluation and initial adjustment, discussed by UCA. The later fall and the 2026 rebound need to be read with their dates. A chart alone cannot assign causal shares to governments.

The second half of 2023 includes days before and after the transition.
A fall from a peak is different from a comparison with the previous half-year.
An average does not show every household's experience.

Understand the mechanism before predicting the future

Income and the cost of the basket move together. The activities below let you change them separately. They illustrate relationships, without estimating a future poverty rate or guaranteeing the outcome of a policy.

Simulated incomes are hypothetical; the basket game uses a dated official reference.
Lower inflation does not necessarily mean falling prices.
Economic growth does not guarantee higher income for every family.

01 / INDEC · 2022–2026

100 people. A changing story.

People · 31 urban agglomerations · EPH / INDEC

32.3%

Half-year 1 / 2026

↓ Green: lower poverty · ↑ Red: higher poverty · versus the previous half-year

Change from the previous half-year: ↑ +4.1 pp

Squares round the percentage to people out of 100. These are separate measurements, not the same people tracked over time.

From the 2024 peak to the 2026 rebound

Poverty rose from 41.7% in the second half of 2023 to 52.9% in the first half of 2024. It fell to 28.2% in late 2025 and returned to 32.3% in the first half of 2026. The comparison matters: 20.6 percentage points below the peak, 4.1 above the previous half-year and 9.4 below late 2023. The series alone cannot isolate the contribution of each policy.

02 / LAB

What does being below the poverty line mean?

Official total basket · September 2026 · Greater Buenos Aires

INDEC reference household: man aged 35, woman aged 31, son aged 6 and daughter aged 8 (3.09 equivalent adults).

The basket is a dated official figure; you choose the income for this simulation. Monthly amounts in Argentine pesos. This does not represent every household or region and does not update automatically.

Required basket (CBT): ARS 1,632,504.69

View INDEC report · table 2, household 2 ↗

Household income

Enter monthly amount (ARS)

− The income does not cover the basket.

Difference: -ARS 432,504.69

03 / LAB

Does income keep up with prices?

Both start at 100 units over the same period. Lower inflation does not mean lower prices. Higher nominal income can buy less.

Income increase (%)

Basket increase (%)

Household income: 120
Required basket: 130

− The income does not cover the basket.

Difference: -10

04 / INDEC · 2026

Age changes the picture too.

First half of 2026. INDEC figures reproduced by Chequeado. This compares groups, not individuals.

Ages 0–14: 44.5%

05 / LAB

What if the economy grows, but your income does not?

Hypothetical scenarios. These controls are neither observed data nor a statistical model: they do not calculate a future poverty rate.

Production (%)

Employment (%)

Real income (%)

Conditions are more favorable: production, employment and real income rise. This does not guarantee lower poverty.

06 / LAB

One family, three futures.

Imaginary family: starts with 900 income units and a basket of 1,000. This does not describe a real household or predict a government's effect.

An additional job adds 300 to income while the basket stays unchanged.

Household income: 1,200
Required basket: 1,000

✓ The income covers the basket.

Difference: +200

Sources, method and limits.

This measures monetary poverty among people, not all social deprivation or a national census. The 2026 and age figures were checked against Chequeado, which links to the INDEC report. UCA provides context on recession, devaluation and initial adjustment; it does not establish a single cause for the full change. Examples are educational. This publication is independent of the cited institutions.

Editorial review: October 31, 2026

Put it into practice

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